My private intestine feeling is that the House is a performed deal. The query is by how a lot. Likewise, I believe Republicans win all of the “toss-up” senate states of us are watching proper now. Nevada (hi there Sisolak corruption prices and COVID emergency energy selections), Wisconsin, Georgia (regardless of all the pieces), and even Pennsylvania (unhealthy blue debate efficiency) go crimson. So I’m guessing at the very least 52 seats Republican on the finish of it, even pondering conservatively  . I additionally assume we’re gonna see a “crimson mirage” in some states as a result of they nonetheless have vote by mail and the like, however that even with mentioned mirage present the wave will doubtlessly carry no matter that when all votes are in.

Democrats did higher in redistricting than anticipated, however that is primarily simply cuz Republicans bought grasping and the blues occur to have lots of constituents whose votes the courts usually tend to shield. And yeah, blue has fewer seats up for grabs, however nonetheless, have a look at their approval charges and issues just like the nationwide generic poll and so they’re fairly susceptible. Heck, in lots of deep crimson congressional races blue’s not even on the poll, so that offers an edge as properly in that trying into it there are extra Republicans with no Democratic opponents than vice versa, partly resulting from how native elections are structured. Likewise some persons are saying that pollsters are gonna overestimate crimson this time as a result of after 2016 and 2020 they’re in search of credibility in that path. Maybe, and I assume they bought it proper in 2018 midterms when Trump wasn’t in play instantly, however… No. I’m like 90% certain on admittedly considerably baseless intestine intuition that they’ve underestimated the appropriate once more regardless of the readjustments. Because of us are actually indignant and are satisfied there was fraud, in no matter amount. Also, the polls for senate which have Democrats profitable nearly all assume polling bias that can end up of their favor. I’m not playing on that, except it is in the other way. I imply, sure, I assume in principle it may very well be true, however I say have a look at the basics: Presidential Approval, Trends For An Incumbent President’s Party, The Economy, Etcetera…

More to the purpose, persons are intently watching the polls, typically patrolling them, typically armed. I believe that whereas that is voter intimidation in some instances it should nonetheless work to close down would-be votes on the left, or transition them to mail the place they could simply not arrive on time. (That and plenty of votes by mail may have already been forged, which I assume complicates issues a bit cuz I wasn’t watching the polling intently on the time, however I really feel would profit Republicans in that partisanship might be strongest nearer to election day.) Very few of the polls are factoring this in, and I believe it may very well be a small however decisive think about a vote the place Republicans are main the polls by a number of share factors amongst possible (versus simply registered) voters, particularly with voter enthusiasm factored in. I is also improper on magnitude and it may usher in an enormous crimson sweep doubtlessly. It would even be huge for Republicans in the long run if there was real WIDESPREAD AND DEMONSTRABLY/LEGALLY DECISIVE (should qualify right here) fraud confirmable, as a result of presumably it will each open the door to authorized challenges and within the second cut back that by each stopping crime and likewise admittedly including some sketchy intimidation bias doubtlessly the opposite approach cuz many citizens are simple to spook and blues concern weapons even in protected fingers. [But I’m less thinking the facts support huge as opposed to modest fraud, given most folks can go to check to see if they voted (so it’s hard to impersonate), and given anybody voting twice gets their vote flagged a no go until who committed the crime is figured out. (A second vote happens way less often than I thought, but yeah, they apparently have protocols in place for them pretty much literally everywhere, jhkim actually made a decent point on that one in a prior discussion, though as a counterpoint they don’t always coordinate well between states.)] ANYWAYS, level being, I believe Republicans have an edge there that not one of the polls are contemplating.

So I dunno, torn between suspecting reasonable Republican over-performance relative to the typical pollster and an all-out sweep/crimson wave. What are your personal ideas and speculations?