Games Workshop gave us a take a look at their Balance Philosophy and the way they use the win price knowledge. But does it go far sufficient?

Yesterday, we lined the Metawatch and the way GW makes use of win charges to assist them information their stability adjustments. We additionally acquired a take a look at their Balance Philosophy as properly. I personally respect their Balance Philosophy in that “A balanced game is good for everyone” and “each army should be the best at doing the thing it’s meant to be best at” — I feel each these issues are good objectives to drive in the direction of.

However, there’s nonetheless the query of how granular to get with the precise knowledge and if win price is the very best indicator of that.

Is Win Rate Data Enough?

Commenter Zeeb introduced up a very good level within the remark part on the final one and I wish to spotlight it and go into extra element:

First up, thanks for the considerate remark Zeeb. I agree with lots of the points you introduced up right here. Let’s discuss concerning the first level about win price and stability.

“I really hope they don’t take a 50% win rate to mean the army is balanced.”

It’s humorous, Abe and I had been poking at this as a aspect dialogue in relation to the article as properly. I occur to agree — simply because a military has a 50% win price doesn’t imply it’s balanced. There are far more components concerned and far more variables to contemplate than simply win price. In the earlier dialogue I even mentioned “It’s important to know that the win rate is the cornerstone for GW’s balancing attempts.” But that doesn’t imply it must be the solely consideration for stability makes an attempt.

Let’s take these Adeptus Astartes for instance with their 39% win price. Honestly, simply based mostly on the information, you’d suppose be forgiven for considering “wow, that army is bad and needs some help! BUFF MARINES!” Wait, what?! And I feel even Games Workshop is aware of that quantity isn’t telling the entire story. They even recognized a number of the core points with Adeptus Astartes of their article:

“You’ll see that Adeptus Astartes armies (these made utilizing Codex: Space Marines) fall into the underperforming class, with a win price of simply 39%. Space Marine armies are extremely prevalent, as the enduring armoured face of the forty first Millennium. They’re typically new gamers’ first military – and it’s honest to say that most individuals aren’t particularly gifted on the noble artwork of Warhammer 40,000 after they first begin enjoying. It additionally means most gamers are fairly aware of them – and tips on how to play in opposition to them. This is a part of why their outcomes don’t fairly match their indomitable status. “

There’s a myriad of the reason why Marines aren’t at a 50% win price — and most of these components aren’t as a result of the military is poorly designed. It’s truly one of the over designed armies within the sport with actually THE MOST choices of items out of every other military. Not to say all the assorted Chapters that can be utilized beneath the umbrella of Adeptus Astartes. Even the information itself is muddled — that quantity additionally consists of stats for Chapters like Iron Hands, Salamanders, and even Deathwatch. It’s not precisely “clean” knowledge on Adeptus Astartes.

Gatekeeper Armies

Win price doesn’t inform the entire image. There’s not sufficient granularity within the win price knowledge to make particular adjustments. However, it may be used as an indicator that “hey, these outliers are …outliers” and they need to most likely get some consideration. But when you’re doing that you just’re simply enjoying “whack-a-mole” on the outliers and never a few of these armies which are within the center. Which brings us to Zeeb’s subsequent level:

“There is a ton of variance between a mid tier gate keeper army and one that played perfectly can win an event (GSC), but otherwise just gets stepped on. They hopefully will make granular changes to most armies.”

No lies detected. There are, in actual fact, a lot of these “mid tier gate keeper” armies within the sport. They are the varieties of armies that go to a 2 day occasion and get a 3-0 sweep the primary day however find yourself going 0-2 the subsequent day. Or you’ll see them on the native 3 spherical tourney and so they’ll go 2-1 as they will by no means fairly cinch the ultimate victory. These are the varieties of armies that, when performed by an actual grasp of that military, will truly win an occasion. But when performed by an inexperienced participant or if they’ve only one unhealthy spherical when issues don’t go to plan can disintegrate fairly shortly.

Part of the GSC Plan: Roll 6’s. If you keep on with the plan, issues go a complete lot smoother.

Win price doesn’t account for participant expertise with their military. It additionally doesn’t account for participant expertise in opposition to that military. Again, utilizing the Adeptus Astartes for instance, individuals know tips on how to play and play in opposition to that military. It’s truly THE Gatekeeper military. If you go to an occasion with out an thought of tips on how to take care of Marines you’re going to have a troublesome time. Which can be why they’ve  39% win price — individuals PLAN to play a minimum of a sport in opposition to them and have a solution for them. If you may’t beat the Gatekeeper you then’re not advancing. If you’re enjoying a Gatekeeper Army then put together for ready opponents.

Granularity Within Armies And Army Lists

Zeeb’s remaining level right here is one other legitimate commentary concerning the armies and items inside these armies:

“The AOS version of that article mentioned paying attention to the frequency that units were showing up in competitive lists. Some units are way over represented while others sit on the shelves. Tau is currently using two Sunsharks in most lists while awesome models like the Ghostkeel or Stealth Suits don’t see play.”

This is one more issue that win price can’t let you know. Again, going again to the Marines, what number of alternative ways are there to construct a Space Marine military? We’re already beginning with a unit pool that’s two or 3 times the scale of different factions. It’s principally 3 armies in a single guide — and that’s earlier than you begin including within the numerous Chapter choices. The sheer quantity of variance between Space Marines armies is staggering…or it ought to be, proper?

If a specific military is doing properly, it’s useful to have a look at the listing which are truly snagging these wins. If you begin to discover that every listing begins to look the identical or a selected mixture of items/choices are chosen persistently then that’s an indication that one thing is off. Units which are “way over represented” in armies are an indication {that a} “Dominant Strategy” has been found and the participant base is making an attempt to take advantage of it for victory.

Hi, I’m the Leafblower. You may need heard of me…

Now, I’m not going to get into all of the Game Theory behind these things. But it’s a factor that purely win price alone can’t let you know. I can let you know that the 40k neighborhood is fast to leap on these Dominant Strategies in terms of aggressive play. There’s a complete graveyard stuffed with armies from the previous that turned the bandwagon military for a sizzling minute earlier than GW put out an FAQ or change that nerfed that military into the bottom.

Is it doable for Games Workshop to get extra granular on inside every military? Yes. But I don’t wish to be the particular person sorting by means of all that knowledge. Unless it’s blatantly apparent it will probably take time for GW to regulate a military’s inside stability. And until that military is on the high of the heap GW most likely isn’t going to maneuver tremendous fast to vary them both.

Game Balance is a tough factor. Analyzing win price is only one device to assist — however don’t suppose that simply because a military is at 50% win price that it’s utterly nice and balanced.

Writer, Editor, Texas Native, and Austinite for 15+ years, Adam covers all issues Tabletop Gaming. Which consists of Warhammer 40,000, Age of Sigmar, D&D, Board Games and all the things else that includes cube, boards, playing cards and a desk.
A hobbyist, participant, and collector of miniatures and video games, Adam’s present obsession are his Death Armies for Age of Sigmar, his Blood Angels and Tyranids for 40k, and his ever rising Arkham Horror: The Card Game Collection.

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