credit: Maria Emelianova / FIDE

The Candidates Tournament kicks off in Madrid, with the opening ceremony happening on the Palacio de Santona on June sixteenth, 17:00 UTC, and the primary spherical to be performed on June seventeenth, 13:00 UTC.

Other than the five hundred,000€ prize fund distributed amongst the eight gamers, the winner of the Candidates Tournament additionally qualifies to play a match towards the World Champion – Magnus Carlsen, to find out who’s worthy of the World Champion crown. Carlsen has gained 5 World Championships thus far, however has urged he might not defend it once more – though it appears that evidently defending towards Firouzja or Liren could be extra more likely to coax him to defend for a sixth time.

Lichess shall be masking the video games day by day, with PGNs of the video games broadcast. In addition, we’ll be producing article recaps, a choice of annotated video games by GM Nijat Abasov, and day by day video recaps by WGM-elect Jesse February.

The contributors

The 8 gamers competing for the suitable to problem Magnus within the World Championship Match are:

• Ian Nepomniachtchi because the runner-up of the earlier World Championship match;
• Teimour Radjabov who was provided a wildcard by FIDE after him withdrawing from the earlier Candidates Tournament as a result of pandemic scenario; 
• Jan-Krzysztof Duda because the winner of the 2021 World Cup; 
• Alireza Firouzja and Fabiano Caruana for ending first and second respectively in FIDE Grand Swiss Tournament 2021; 
• Hikaru Nakamura and Richard Rapport because the winner and runner up, respectively, of the FIDE Grand Prix 2022;
• Ding Liren obtained the final obtainable spot as a result of having the best score as of the May 2022 FIDE score record (excluding the reigning champion, Magnus Carlsen). He changed Sergey Karjakin, who obtained a six month ban from the FIDE Ethics and Disciplinary Commission on March 21, 2022, and was subsequently disqualified from the Candidates. 

This Candidates Tournament would be the 2nd for Ian Nepomniachtchi, Hikaru Nakamura, and Ding Liren, the third for Teimour Radjabov (not counting his 2020 withdrawal)  and the 4th for Fabiano Caruana, with Nepomniachtchi and Caruana having gained it as soon as. 

So far, Smyslov is the one participant to win the Candidates match two consecutive occasions (in a double spherical robin format – different gamers have achieved it whereas the knockout format was used). Nepomniachtchi has the chance to be the second to realize it – we’ve to attend to see if he’ll succeed. 

credit: Maria Emelianova / FIDE

Predictions and probabilities

Using face to face knowledge and Elo calculators, it’s potential to find out what the statistics predict about who’s most definitely to win. Depending on the precise mannequin used, the conclusions are that Ding Liren or Fabiano Caruana are thought of to be the favourites to win the occasion (each someplace between 21% – 30% probabilities), adopted by Firouzja at between 14% – 21% probabilities. Roughly 5 – 10% behind Firouzja come Duda and Nepomniactchi, with Nakamura, Radjabov and Rapport mentioning the rear.

Reality is after all more durable to foretell than what numbers recommend, so we’d recommend not studying too deeply into what the statistics suggest. Further, there are a number of unknowns – and human components – surrounding the gamers. Any of those extra components may tilt the Candidates into one of many gamers’ palms:

• Ding Liren got here off a powerful 28 classical video games in 28 days to fulfill a minimal sport requirement, however with qualifying into the match so final minute it may very well be potential his preparation has suffered. Liren additionally appeared to be much less energetic than the opposite gamers within the Candidates, even throughout the pandemic, so maybe has some extra rust to shake off. 
• Fabiano Caruana is just not new to the Candidates, having performed in it thrice already – so nerves positively gained’t be as a lot of a problem for him as the opposite gamers. But in some ways, Caruana nonetheless appears to be re-finding himself and his model after his separation from long-time coach and second, Rustam Kasimdzhanov. 
• Alireza Firouzja has had a historic score climb, culminating in changing into the youngest ever participant to interrupt into the 2800 membership. Firouzja hasn’t performed a lot since that historic achievement, focusing totally on making ready for the Candidates. Only time will inform if that has made him rusty, and even sharper. It’s additionally price noting that Firouzja has traditionally struggled to beat Caruana, with no wins towards him (+0 =4 -2) – however however, virtually considers Duda free factors with 4 wins towards him in 5 encounters (+4 =1 -0).
• Jan-Krzysztof Duda had a formidable World Cup and in March this 12 months made the finals of the Champions Chess Tour, dropping solely towards Carlsen. But there are some questions on how he might carry out in a double spherical robin occasion (versus knockout just like the World Cup and Champions Chess Tour) towards very elite competitors. Duda has 26 whole video games towards each different Candidate within the match. 
• Ian Nepomniachtchi could have had looking questions concerning his stamina and selection of seconds (different elite gamers, contracted to assist one other participant put together) after his devastating consequence within the 2021 World Championship match. At the identical time, he’s had a 12 months to construct up his stamina, be taught from his errors, and type a brand new group. If Nepomniachtchi is in type, he’s a superb participant as his Candidates 2020 outcomes present.
• Hikaru Nakamura has blasted again into elite stage chess after a two 12 months hiatus the place he turned a streaming and influencer phenom. He’s notched up two 2850+ performances in fast succession. It appears he has safety, stability and peace of thoughts to give attention to chess now – however equally, he may have new competing priorities at play – like worrying about how a lot streamer time he’s lacking out on! If he does qualify, traditionally Carlsen has been Nakamura’s kryptonite, with just one loss throughout 41 encounters (+14 =26 -1 in Carlsen’s favour).
• Richard Rapport has lengthy been identified for thrilling, inventive chess – however he’s needed to rein it in a little bit to see his score and potential soar. Considered to be a little bit weaker than many different gamers within the subject at opening preparation, it’s potential he may very well be outfoxed early on in video games. The Hungarian’s wry sense of humour additionally has some questioning his self-belief, however don’t be fooled – no one could make it to, and keep their place within the prime 10 score lists with out unshakeable motivation.
• Teimour Radjabov was the youngest Grandmaster in historical past when he gained the title in 2001, and over his lifetime achieved lofty heights. But, his outcomes and type over the previous few years has seemed lackluster for this stage of competitors, and he lately had fairly a nasty Norway Chess match. It’s potential he was saving his prep and keenness for the Candidates – however it’s additionally potential out of all of the gamers within the subject, he’s struggling most with motivation.  

If it goes to tiebreaks, Firouzja and Nakamura are identified to be most comfy with sooner time controls. Rapport, Duda and Nepomniachtchi are additionally all robust in speedy and blitz – though Duda is present European Rapid Champion, and has a number of robust latest leads to blitz and speedy time controls. 

Caruana has regularly been cited as sooner time controls being one in every of his weaknesses, however following his loss to Carlsen within the 2018 World Championships on speedy tiebreaks, he has considerably improved his power in sooner time controls. Ding Liren is powerful on paper – however given his inactivity he has dropped off the energetic score lists and is at the moment a little bit of an unknown amount. Radjabov appears to be weaker when in comparison with this subject in sooner time controls. 

The schedule

The format

The Candidates Tournament is a double round-robin match; The gamers obtain 120 minutes for the primary 40 strikes, adopted by 60 minutes for the following 20 strikes and quarter-hour for the remainder of the sport, plus a 30 seconds increment ranging from transfer 61. June twentieth, June twenty fourth, June twenty eighth and July 2nd shall be relaxation days.

In case of a tie for the primary place, tiebreaks shall be performed as following:

Stage 1

• If two gamers are tied, a two-game match between them shall be performed, with a time management of 15+10 (quarter-hour plus a ten seconds increment per transfer), and the colors decided by a drawing of heaps.
• In the reasonably unlikely occasion of between three and 6 gamers being tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of 15+10 (quarter-hour plus a ten seconds increment per transfer).
• In the in all probability not possible occasion of seven or all eight gamers being tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of 10+5 (10 minutes plus a 5 seconds increment per transfer).

Stage 2 (to be performed provided that there’s a tie after stage 1)

• If two gamers are tied, a two-game match between them shall be performed, with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer), and the colors decided by a drawing of heaps.
• If greater than two gamers are tied, a spherical robin match shall be performed between the tied gamers, with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer).

Stage 3 (to be performed provided that there’s a tie after stage 2)

• A knockout match is to be held. Each match will consist of 1 sport with a time management of three+2 (3 minutes plus a 2 seconds increment per transfer) and the colors decided by a drawing of heaps. If greater than two gamers are tied, the brackets shall be decided by a drawing of heaps.
• In case the sport is drawn, one other sport with the identical time management and colors reversed shall be performed. This process shall be adopted till there’s a decisive consequence.

Whom are you rooting for in FIDE Candidates 2022? Who do you suppose that would be the subsequent challenger to face Magnus Carlsen within the World Championship Match? We are ready to learn within the feedback!