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likelihood – How to calculate Chance of Success of this turn-based Battle?


I’m coding a choice-driven role-playing recreation and I wish to give the participant a proportion of his success probability in profitable a battle earlier than he chooses to begin it. However, I’ve no clue find out how to make this calculation. I’d actually recognize any steering you may present!

The battle system is a simplified model of D&D battles:

  1. Battles are turn-based and all the time 1vs1 (Player vs Enemy).
  2. Both have HP, CP, DP (Health, Combat and Defense Points) and a Weapon Modifier.
  3. Before an assault, the attacker has to roll a Hit Roll (1d20). The end result + his Modifier is in contrast in opposition to the goal’s DP. If the worth is equal or increased, the assault will hit.
  4. Then I calculate the Damage inflicted with a Weapon Roll, which makes use of the weapon die (the die is equal to the CP worth, so if CP = 10, the die is 1d10) + the Modifier.

I have to calculate the prospect the Player will be capable to land sufficient hits to kill the Enemy earlier than he kills him. I can calculate the Chance to hit through the use of this components supplied by the D&D group, however I additionally have to take into consideration the remainder of the variables:

Chance to hit = ((21-(Target’s DP-(Attacker’s Modifier))) / 20) * 100

*21 as a result of: 20 = all the time hit, 1 = all the time miss

Here’s an instance:

Player Enemy
DP 10 20
CP 10 8
HP 80 60
Modifier 8 5
Chance to hit 45% 80%
Avg. injury 9 7

The remaining end result must be a single proportion. For instance: Battle success probability = 47%


Edit:

I simulated 100 battles as @Zibelas advised to get the end result. However, I’d nonetheless choose to discover a single components to get the succes proportion, for effectivity causes…

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